The Cobra Effect
In the late 1800s, Delhi India was overrun by cobras. The British Government, that ruled at the time, decided to solve this problem by offering a bounty for them. Seems like a great idea right? We have too many cobras so let's pay people to catch them. Unfortunately, this well-intended decision was exploited and people started breeding cobras to be able to collect on the bounty. This resulted in less cobras in the streets, but people were still bringing in a lot of cobras, and being paid for them. Once the government realized this, they canceled the bounty. Can you guess what the cobra breeders did once they stopped getting paid? All the home-bred cobras were released, resulting in more cobras in the city than when they started.
This story has become a lesson known as the Cobra Effect. According to Forbes, the cobra effect is when "Business leaders make well-intended decisions to fix a problem or drive a result. However, if it is not well thought out, it can actually make a situation worse."
Whether it be at work or with your personal goals, beware of short-sighted planning. The process you created may solve the problem today, but what about tomorrow? Next month? Next year? A way to avoid the cobra effect is to put adequate time into arguing against your idea. List out all the things that could go wrong. What’s the worst case scenario? Poke as many holes as you can and then ask yourself two questions:
How likely is it that these holes will happen?
If they do happen, is it a deal breaker? Or is it still worth it.
No plan will ever be perfect, but with a little effort we can at least avoid the cobras.
